Run With Scissors

Splitting Tens considered harmful

So I figured I’d change things up here and write a how-to on my blackjack strategy. If you’ve been around me anytime in the last 3 weeks, you’ve heard about my exploits in Vegas, the whole weekend costing me $50 with my winnings. You also probably know I’ve had a good streak at the Seneca Casinos, having only one losing session in the last year.

So what’s the secret? Well, it’s no magic, just a combination of smart play, solid betting strategy (always under looked) and most importantly, good karma. Let’s delve in.

The rules are simple, you get dealt 2 cards, and you want to get close enough to get to 21 to beat the dealer’s likely hand, while not putting yourself in a position to bust (go over 21). Aces are worth 1 or 11, and that can change as you get more cards (so it’s safe to hit an A7 hand, you can’t bust).

Strategy – Any number of cards (link) are available. Don’t be intimidated, all cards follow the same basic strategy: Tens are good for you, and the most likely card to come out at any given time. Low cards are good for the dealer, as they’re required to hit until 17 (tens would bust their teen hands, while lower cards keep them in the game). So basically, if a dealer has a 4,5, or 6 as an up card, you assume their other card is a 10, and that they will have to hit and most likely get another 10, busting them and letting you win. Conversely, if they’re showing a 10, they most likely have 20 already, and you’re screwed most likely. Study a card, get a feel for it, and don’t be afraid to bring it along, I still forget when to split and double down soft hands.

Betting strategy is where you make you’re money. Over a long enough time-line, playing basic strategy, you will still lose money (about .5-3%, depending on the game), however in the short term, streaks are very real. Shoe’s do get (and stay) hot , other shoes seem to absolutely kill you.

When you sit down at the table, you’ll want somewhere between 10-20 times the minimum bet in chips, so around $150 for a $10 table. Whenever I win a hand, I’ll put another $5 onto my bet, whenever I lose, back down to minimum. Simply enough, you put out big bets when you’re winning, and grind out small bets during cold streaks. I’ve personally went up to $60 bets on $5 tables this way. One or two good streaks like this will have you playing with the house’s money all night, you’ll be more or less unbreakable, unless you stay wayyy to long at a cold table. Conversely, if I lose 4-6 hands right off the bat, I look for another table fast.

And last karma. You might think I don’t believe in these things, having studied the statistics of the game, but hey I’ve seen to many hands to ignore it. Friendly dealers, players having fun, free drinks, it all adds up to happier playing, and you tend to make less stupid moves when you’re having fun. I sat down and some tables and thought I was at a funeral (female Asian dealers are the first red flag, though I’ve met some great exceptions to the rule). I’ve had my most fun (and profit) at a table with 2-3 friends, jokes and drinks flying, and tipping whoever came near me. Hey, it’s supposed to be fun right?

(and props to whoever gets the title reference there).

You all think you can be a better God than I can

Absolutely incredible article about the use of God to justify terrible things in the world. Pitts nails it.

You must read this

Something great is happening over on Banner’s site. His republican family is arguing with his liberal friends, and it’s the funnies thing I’ve done in a while. Enjoy, hell, join in!

Damn it, my absentee ballot is already in the hands of Erie County electoral board, so all I can do now about the election is pound sand and yell.

And write this article, of course. Who would the characters in the Simpson’s vote for? Some are obvious (quick Lauren/Mabry, who are the members of the Springfield Republican’s club?). Maybe this will help those last undecideds (shit or get off the pot!) in who they will vote for.

Homer – A nice enough, middle class white guy. He should vote democrat, but would probably get suckered and vote Republican. No worry though, he’ll mess up his ballot and not be counted.

Lisa – A tree hugging hippy in training, with no view of the real world. Sure she’s only 8, but with 12+ years of seasons, she’s actually 20 and currently at Vassar. She’ll protest Bush twice daily, but won’t be able to understand how her vote for Cobb (Nader was sooooo four years ago) is hurting Kerry (assuming Springfield is in a swing state).

Edna Krabappel - A hardworking teacher who has left many children behind (with the heartwarming exception of passing Bart with a D-). She’s a jaded realist, and is known for complaining about lacking funds (she even started a strike). She’ll see that Bush has drastically underfunded NCLB, and vote for Kerry.

Krusy the Klown – A Jewish man in the entertainment business, easy score for Kerry.

Fat Tony – As a man in underground crime, he wants the cops out of his hair. Kerry is a former prosecutor, and Bush is all big brother, so I see Fat Tony casting his vote for Badarnik, the libertarian.

Moe – The token small business owner. I say he votes for Bush, if only because the increase in unemployment always helps those who serve alcohol.

Flanders – The religious right, he’s a strong Bush backer.

Lenny and Carl – They support Kerry, as they don’t want Bush to be able to pass his anti-gay marriage amendment.

Smithers – Ditto.

Stampy – He’s an elephant, easy Bush vote. But once again, he’s an elephant, so he can’t vote.

Grandpa Simpson – An old (old) Roosevelt Democrat, he may be able to mobilize the entire Senior’s center to vote (the old have great turnout numbers you know).

That’s all I can think of for now, chime in with your own guesses. Heck, branch out to futurama and Family Guy if you’re feeling it. Really explore the studio space with this one.

Rocking the Strip, and the Yankees suck!

So yeah, Vegas was the shit. I’ve never drank, gambled and not slept so much in one weekend. Did I win big? Of course, who do you think I am? I won a couple hundred playing blackjack, which covered my casual gambling, food, cabs, tips, etc. The whole weekend left me only $50 poorer. Do you know how cool free drinks are for an entire weekend? I can’t even begin to tell the stories (what happens in vegas, yada yada…), but it was the most fun weekend I’ve had in a long time. Hell, let’s go with best weekend ever. How can you not like a weekend where the phrase “tea-bagged at knifepoint” is coined?

And the other big wins, sports! Not only do my Bills win (Dolphins suck!), the Red Sox, my adopted baseball team, are on the verge of knocking the Yankees off (Yankees suck!). I can’t even describe what a fun 5 days it’s been between all this. When Kerry’s elected in 2 weeks, it will complete the winning!

So to review, Vegas rocks, Dolphins suck, Yankees suck, Bush sucks.

Vegas baby, Vegas!

Flight takes off tonight, I’ll be back Monday afternoon. Wish me luck (and have bail money ready)!

Why do Canadians celebrate Thanksgiving a month early?

Because they have less to be thankful for.

Wedding Pictures up

Eric & Colleen’s wedding pictures are up, feel free to spread them around. Incredible day overall, great ceremony, great friends, absolute blast. I’ll give a full synopsis later.

Wedding Pictures up

Eric & Colleen’s wedding pictures are up, feel free to spread them around. Incredible day overall, great ceremony, great friends, absolute blast. I’ll give a full synopsis later.

VP running diary

Welcome to my second debate running diary. Tonight we have John Edwards (playing the part of Luke Skywalker) going up against VP Dick Cheney (Darth Vader). Note that this was written the next night, so I already have a vague idea of what happened.

06:27:24 pm - I’ll be watching the CNN broadcast, right now Tucker Carlson (a Republican I can at least laugh with) is doing up the pre-game. The candidates are already sitting, no light sabers to be seen.

06:29:15 pm - First question, Cheney gives the standard White House line on Iraq (though he speaks better then Bush ever could). Edwards swings back hard, repeating Kerry’s statements of more troops dying each month. Cheney’s 30 second response tries to say that all is well and Iraqis are months away from doing it all on their own. Edwards reminds us that Iraq and Al Queda had no connection.

06:36:12 pm - Edwards takes on a good loaded question (“would Saddam still be in power if you were President?”) and handles it well. Establishes the point well of Iraq having nothing to do with 9/11, will be tough for Cheney to refute. As I talk, he’s trying to pretend that no one has recorded him saying that Iraq caused 9/11 (and yeah, I’m really biased, here, but that should be obvious).

06:40:35 pm - Cheney seems to be doing well on talking on Afganistan, Edwards is a bit fidgety. Edwards wasn’t terribly effective in his response, and Cheney’s response about El Salvador were good. Edwards got a small hit back on Cheney’s support of lifting Iran sanctions, but still a point for Cheney.

06:45:24 pm - Edwards is defending Kerry’s “Global Test” remark, he’s doing well, but the fact that it’s even remembered is a testament to Bush Co’s ability to spin an issue. Cheney came back with a cheap shot at Edwards voting attendance.

06:50:19 pm - “We’ve never questioned John Kerry’s patriotism, our friends at the Swift boat did.”

06:53:19 pm - Edwards just called Cheney out on his Halliburton. Cheney keeps trying to tie the flip flop label on them. It’s funny, from what I read this morning, people gave Cheney credit for not just giving talking points, but that’s all I’ve heard so far.

06:59:05 pm - Getting ugly now, Cheney is establishing his point well, and Edwards seems a bit out of his depth. Cheney is still glossing over issues, but he seems to be getting traction with his use of “wrong war, wrong time, but come join us” argument about allies.

07:02:06 pm - Great shot by Edwards on how Bush flip flopped on the creation of the 9/11 commission and the DHS (though in all fairness, I think the DHS is pretty useless).

07:06:59 pm - Iran’s come up now, and Edwards is tying in Haliburton, and the companies dealings with Libya and Iran, and those sweet deal no bid contracts in Iraq.

07:07:55 pm - Owned! Cheney asks for more time on the Haliburton statements, but is shot down. He also just gave out the wrong url for factcheck.org (he said factcheck.com, which is a Pro Kerry site)

07:10:24 pm - Cheney just got his Halliburton answer (in his response to an Isreal question), by attacking Edwards’ attendance at the Senate (ignore the fact that pictures have come out since last night showing the two together, and that Cheney just disappeared for a year after 9/11 to ‘undisclosed locations’). Also note he never actually talked about Isreal here.

07:15:17 pm - Cheney just threw out his first trial lawyer jab at Edwards. He’s also crowing about No Child Left Behind, which could be a good law if it was ever funded. If Edwards has any sense he’ll rip into him for this.

07:20:18 pm - Edwards is hitting on the Bush tax cuts, making sure to say that only the $200k + a year will see a tax increase, along with more fiscal responsibilities. He also is hitting them up for the expanding federal government, a dirty secret for a supposed conservative President.

07:24:16 pm - Cheney’s addressing the Gay marriage amendment. He’s playing it as it should be a state’s decision, unless they happen to disagree with the President. Edwards kind of pooches the question too, with his statement about Cheney’s family.

07:30:06 pm - This moderator loves the loaded questions. Hit Edwards with one earlier, and just got Cheney with :”Is Edwards the problem with medical tort reform?”. I’m all for making tough questions, but that seems a bit tacky.

07:31:48 pm - Edwards seems to be handling the tort reform, by giving some good ideas. Professional peer review of cases merit, putting economic pressure on the sleazy lawyers. Also threw in a good reference to a former case of his.

07:34:53 pm - Edwards seems to be hitting his stride now on the medical issue, he’s much better on the issue then I thought he would be.

07:41:22 pm - This debate doesn’t have the pop of the first debate, seems to be more subdued, even with all the attacks. Heck, I might miss old George after January, just for that “you never know what’s going to happen next” vibe his speeches have.

07:51:36 pm - Edwards just hasn’t blown me away tonight, I agree with what he’s saying, but for anyone who’s been listening, he added very little. He hasn’t made any major gaffes though, so I’ll give him a B-.